02/14/05 USDA projects increasing wheat stocks

Marketline February 14, 2005 Wheat futures were mixed Friday, but mostly lower at Chicago in what analysts called a technical pullback from last week's speculative led rally. USDA also released some long term base line projections Friday, which, assuming normal weather, project U.S. wheat ending stocks increasing from 568 million bushels this current marketing year to 638 million in 06-07 and 648 million bushels in 07-08. Ryan Kilbrandt of ADM at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange didn't think those numbers helped traders' attitudes. Kilbrandt: "I'd expect range bound trade to continue. The recent positive export number should lend some support, but talk over an increase in export subsidies by the E.U. may limit U.S. exports. Long term I look for the market to trend lower due to large world production and growing stocks." On Friday Chicago March wheat was down 1 3/4 at 2-94 ½. March corn unchanged at 1-98 1/4. Portland cash white wheat mixed but mostly 3-93. New crop August white wheat 3-69. Club wheat 3-99. PNW HRW 11.5 percent protein 4-20. Dark northern spring 14% protein 5-03. Export barley 103 dollars a ton. Tyson announced Friday it would be resuming operations over the next two weeks at the beef plants it suspended operations or reduced hours at last month. That includes the Boise and Pasco plants. Analysts think packers will start the week short bought but feedlots may have larger showlists. Boxed beef was weak Friday. Cattle futures were higher. April live cattle up a dime at 86-82. March feeders up 55 at 100-15. March Class III milk up four cents at 13-84. I'm Bob Hoff and that's Marketline on the Northwest Ag Information Network.