01/31/05 Northwest weather for ag, Part two

01/31/05 Northwest weather for ag, Part two

Creighton University's Art Douglas is a noted atmospheric researcher, with a specialty of weather in connection with how it affects agriculture. And at his annual visit to the Northwest, the Spokane Ag Expo to be exact, Douglas made his predictions on this year's weather forecast, providing information that will help Northwest farmers and ranchers prepare accordingly. So what is the forecast? Douglas says it will be better than what growers are experiencing now in much of the region. DOUGLAS: Look for a cool dry January through March, precip in the wheat areas about two to three inches below normal. And then as we go into the April to June time frame, the cool temperatures are gradually going to relax. Precip may go above normal half an inch to one inch above normal April through June. And then as we finally get into the summer, it's likely then to be drier than normal summer, with that high pressure reestablishing itself offshore. Well, not exactly the best forecast but not as bad as one might think. Douglas says there are two keys for decent moisture in the coming months. First, on the short term forecast comes that projected higher than normal precipitation in the spring. DOUGLAS: Those particular analog years by the way averaged surprisingly only about a half inch to an inch above normal precipitation for you folks, but heck, that's better than nothing right. So if we can through the winter with some snow on the ground admittedly below normal and then go into the spring though which might end up slightly wetter than normal, I think you'll be a lot better off than maybe what its looking like you're going to be in February. I think you should go into April and June, you're finally going to get some much needed moisture. The other key is the warm water pool in the Central Pacific Ocean that is giving our region its currently mild temperatures. It may not look like it now, but Douglas says if decades old meteorological data is any predictor, long term, Northwest growers could be looking at favorable precipitation patterns, meaning the next few years. DOUGLAS: And it's that warm water pool that I want to keep emphasizing is probably what's causing the weather right now. But it's also a warm water pool that's more typical of the period back there in the forties, fifties, and early sixties which was really wet in the Pacific Northwest. So don't lose hope just because it's dry right now. As long as we can keep that warm water going, I think for the future we are in very good shape.
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