05/18/05 USDA world wheat outlook

Farm and Ranch May 18, 2005 The 2005/2006 global wheat outlook from the USDA includes larger carry-in stocks offsetting smaller crops resulting in larger supplies. Still, world ending stocks next May are forecast to drop by two million tons. Global wheat production is expected to be down 9.7 million tons and the Chair of the USDA's World Outlook Board Gerald Bange, says most of the decrease is due to a drop in the European Union 25`s production. But wheat trade is also expected to be down. Bange: "Given the fact that we are seeing our exports may be trimmed by about 100-million bushels down to the 950-million bushels or so, and given that our supplies are essentially the same as what they were last year, we are looking at a build up in ending stocks once again." U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2005-2006 marketing year are projected to increase to 678 million bushels, the largest since 2001/2002. USDA says the decline in world wheat trade will be due primarily to reduced imports by China and Pakistan. For the wheat trade year that runs July to June, Chinese imports are forecast to drop from seven million to four million tons. Pakistan's imports are projected to fall from one and a half million tons to a half million. Egypt is expected to maintain its imports at 7.5 million tons. USDA says competition among exporting countries is expected to be intense early in the marketing year, particularly from Russia, the Ukraine and the European Union. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.